年度

候選人

最後一次預測(%)

結果(%)

差異(%)

2012

Barack Obama

49

51.1

-2

Mitt Romney

50

47.2

+3

2008

Barack Obama

55

52.6

+2

John McCain

44

46.0

-2

2004

George W. Bush

49

50.7

-2

John F. Kerry

49

48.3

+1

2000

George W. Bush

48

47.9

0

Albert Gore, Jr.

46

48.4

-2

Ralph Nader

4

2.7

+1

1996

William J. Clinton

52

49.2

+3

Robert Dole

41

40.7

0

H. Ross Perot

7

8.4

-1

1992

William J. Clinton

49

43.0

+6

George Bush

37

37.4

0

H. Ross Perot

14

18.9

-5

1988

George Bush

56

53.4

+3

Michael Dukakis

44

45.6

-2

1984

Ronald Reagan

59

58.8

0

Walter F. Mondale

41

40.6

0

1980

Ronald Reagan

47

50.7

-4

Jimmy Carter

44

41.0

+3

John Anderson

8

6.6

+1

1976

Jimmy Carter

48

50.1

-2

Gerald Ford

49